by Liu Cixin
Translated by Masterdai
Introduction
The Western academic community has begun to discuss a new concept: the Technological Singularity.
The term "singularity" is borrowed from cosmology, where it describes the heart of a black hole — a point where mass is infinitely compressed to a size-less spot, causing the smooth fabric of spacetime to rupture. Within this singularity, our current laws of physics cease to apply. The Technological Singularity suggests that technological advancements might, after a certain point of accumulation, undergo a sudden and transformative shift, radically altering the state of the human world in an incredibly short span of time.
In this article, we will delve into two potential Technological Singularities that might emerge in the near future.
The Ladder of Immortality
If I were to assert that all people throughout history have been fundamentally equal — and by "history," I mean since the dawn of time, not just post-French Revolution — what would you feel? If the majority deem this absurd, it's perhaps because they've yet to witness even greater inequalities, or more precisely, the technological circumstances that could engender such disparities.
Imagine journeying across the plains of life when, suddenly, a wall confronts you. This wall stretches infinitely upward, plummets infinitely deep, and spans infinitely to both the left and right. The nature of this wall shouldn't be too difficult to discern. In bygone eras, commoners might have encountered this barrier after three to four decades, while emperors and aristocrats might have journeyed for seventy to eighty years. However, the difference between them typically wouldn't exceed half a century. As we'll see later, this discrepancy is negligible. Everyone confronts this wall within a time frame that doesn't differ by an order of magnitude. It embodies the greatest equality, a baseline of egalitarianism established for humanity either by God or nature itself.
Yet, as technology progresses, the wall of mortality that stands before some is set to be dismantled, rendering their life's plain boundlessly vast.
You might believe I'm delving into the realm of science fiction, that immortality is a distant, unattainable dream — something that, even if possible, lies in the far future and bears no relevance to us. This perspective might have been accurate a century ago, or even fifty years prior. However, advancements in molecular biology, medicine, and information science have placed our society at a delicate turning point. Even so, we acknowledge that within our lifetimes, true immortality will remain unattainable. So, what's the connection between the potential for eternal life and our current existence? Note that while there might not be a direct expressway to immortality now, a ladder has appeared. Once someone takes that very first step, they might continue ascending indefinitely. If immortality is realized in half a millennium, you don't need to live another five hundred years—just an additional fifty would suffice.
The first step on the ladder to immortality is to live another fifty years. For the readers of this article, approximately one-fifth may find this goal challenging to achieve. Regrettably, it's hard for you to fathom what you might miss. For half of the remaining individuals, adhering to a healthy lifestyle, coupled with the continual progress of medical technology, makes living another half-century entirely plausible. For the youngest half, a further fifty years is almost a given.
With that, you would have set foot on the second rung of the ladder to everlasting life. This step is composed of two imminent technologies: human hibernation and cloning. Hibernation isn't about freezing individuals at liquid nitrogen temperatures and then reviving them; such a super-technique seems elusive in the foreseeable future. Hibernation refers to a state where, at relatively low temperatures, say negative forty degrees, the human body's metabolism and other physiological processes drastically slow, perhaps to one-tenth of the normal rate. This way, you could live a century within a ten-year lifespan. Warm-blooded mammals, like bears, innately possess a variant of this capability. There's no theoretical hindrance to its application in humans. It's a technology on the cusp of a breakthrough, entirely possible within fifty years.
Alternatively, if hibernation remains unattainable in the short term, there's a fallback: cloning. Given current research trajectories, full human cloning is almost certain to become reality within fifty years. With it, you could clone organs from your genes to replace your aging ones, or even clone an entire body. Once it reaches a certain age, your brain could be transplanted into it, leaving you young in every aspect except the brain. Considering the advancements in neurosurgery and microsurgical techniques, such transplantation is feasible within fifty years. Unlike heterografts, there's no rejection in cloning, making it significantly simpler. While this poses formidable ethical and moral dilemmas, the cloned body, brainless, could be cultivated in vats, legally considered an extension of you, not a separate individual. Gaining societal and legal acceptance is challenging, but humanity's brilliance in overcoming such obstacles is evident. Few can resist this allure; those left isolated and discarded are the moral purists.
Either of the above technologies could span your life across another century. If both emerge concurrently, you might leap even longer, say, three to five centuries. Admittedly, this isn't true immortality. While hibernation isn't living in the traditional sense, and cloned bodies might be youthful, the brain continually ages. Yet, if you surpass a century, you step onto the third rung of the ladder to eternity.
The technological foundation of the third level of the Ladder to Immortality is the extraction of brain information—transferring all the information from the brain into data a computer can recognize. The information to be extracted encompasses more than just memories; it includes the full scope of consciousness, effectively capturing an entire human persona. While this idea treads into the domain of science fiction, it necessitates substantial theoretical and technological breakthroughs in biology, information science, and neuroscience. However, it's not beyond comprehension. The brain functions through the intricate interconnections of countless neurons. With a profound understanding of this interconnection and its mechanisms, it becomes possible to extract all the brain's data—a process no different in essence from extracting data from a hard drive. Theoretically, it's an achievable feat.
Taking it a step further, as advancements in information technology flourish and computer capacities escalate, we could simulate the state of every neuron in a person's brain through software. This equates to constructing a digital replica of a person's brain within computer memory. If this virtual brain is fed information within a simulated environment, it would be tantamount to that person living within a virtual realm. Whether this state is equivalent to living is up for debate. One can resonate with Descartes' "I think, therefore I am". Even in the real world, the essence of human existence is primarily the brain continuously receiving and transmitting information from and to its surroundings. In a virtual world, while the environment might not be tangible, the consciousness still interacts in a similar manner. If the perceived information from this virtual existence is indistinguishable from reality, then, from a conscious perspective, it's akin to truly living. It's worth noting that such a virtual existence could be alluring to many. In a virtual realm, one might possess god-like abilities and effortlessly obtain what only deities could in reality. Of course, the opposite viewpoint exists: one might argue that the person is dead, and what operates within the computer is merely a set of lifeless codes. You could staunchly adhere to the conventional definition of life: living in a biological state within the real world.
However, the importance of these philosophical musings pales in comparison to the actual goal of brain data extraction: preservation and the ability to transcend time. Once your entire persona is stored as data, it can potentially exist indefinitely, offering a cost-effective alternative to hibernation. Perhaps it could be stored on a simple disc. You could easily span five hundred, a thousand years, or even longer. Thus, you ascend to the fourth and final rung of the Ladder to Immortality, where you might achieve true immortality as traditionally defined.
The technological foundation of the fourth level of the Ladder to Immortality is brain information infusion—injecting the brain data extracted in the third stage into an entirely new brain. Admittedly, the challenges posed by this technology surpass those of brain data extraction by an order of magnitude, yet it remains theoretically plausible. Since human memories and consciousness arise from the interconnections of trillions of brain neurons, using technology to set the state of all these neurons could facilitate the downloading of a person's complete persona into a new brain. The source of this new brain and body is hardly a concern; this issue was resolved at the second level of the ladder. At this point, humans can be backed up. Regular backups of one's brain data can be made. If life reaches its end one day, one could restore any version of themselves from these backups into a new body and brain. This body could be a clone from one's own genes, derive from different genes, or one could even simultaneously download a single persona into two or more bodies. If you find this step inconceivable, remember we're envisioning a world five hundred to a thousand years from now—think of how different things were during the Song Dynasty a millennium ago.
At this juncture, humanity has thoroughly vanquished death, realizing true immortality.
On this path to everlasting life, the most significant hurdles might not be technological but ethical and socio-political. The core challenge is how humanity navigates an era of renewed inequality, striving for a novel equilibrium. In the past and present, disparities in wealth, power, and status among humans are mere differences between individuals. However, disparities concerning mortality elevate these differences to those between mortals and deities. Such inequalities, if they had emerged in ancient times, might not have been tolerated by societies then—let alone in future societies that hold human rights and the right to life paramount. Granting a select few the opportunity to achieve immortality first could trigger unpredictable societal cataclysms. Conversely, prohibiting such technologies would similarly spell disaster, as both scenarios implicate the fundamental right to life.
The advent of hibernation technology allows humans, for the first time, the capability to traverse time—it's humanity's inaugural stride through time. However, when such a technology is on the brink of realization, a mere sociological glimpse reveals its potential to radically alter the face of human civilization. This transformation hinges on a single belief: that tomorrow will be better. Truthfully, humanity has only held this belief for the past two or three centuries. Earlier, such an idea might have been laughable. Take, for instance, the European Middle Ages, which, compared to Ancient Rome a millennium prior, was materially poorer and spiritually more repressive. In China's context, the Wei-Jin-Northern and Southern Dynasties, when compared to the Han Dynasty, or the Yuan and Ming Dynasties in contrast with the Tang and Song Dynasties, exhibited marked declines. However, post-Industrial Revolution, the world saw an unbroken rise. As humanity advanced with a brisk, triumphant pace, faith in a better future solidified. Predictions for a decade ahead might diverge, but few would doubt that a century later would be akin to paradise. Verifying this is simple—just look back at life a century ago. Therefore, if hibernation becomes possible, few would prefer the present. Once this technology becomes mainstream, some will embark on their journey to the future's 'paradise', while the rest labor in the present's grim reality to construct it. Most alarming is the greatest temptation of the future: these fortunate ones would be stepping onto the first rung of the ladder to immortality. For the first time in history, glaring disparities concerning mortality would emerge. As a privileged few, primarily the affluent, embark on this eternal journey through dreamless sleep, the envious gazes of countless others in the world would be chilling.
Thus, merely reaching the second rung of the Ladder to Immortality—either through hibernation or human cloning—despite seeming mundane, could once realized, provoke profound societal impacts, marking the onset of a technological singularity.
The challenges presented just at the second level are daunting, with unimaginable trials ahead.
Yet, the allure of immortality will overcome all. Humanity is bound to ascend this ladder, with a high likelihood of ultimate success.
Should this be the case, human society would transform entirely.
Herein, we discern that the technology of eternal life isn't as straightforward as it first appears. From a sociological standpoint, an immortal world brims with elements beyond our current imagination. This might lead to thorough subversions in politics, economics, philosophy, and culture, heralding a brand new civilization.
In summation, the underlying message is this: don't dismiss the troubles of health preservation and never reject a healthy lifestyle. It's not about sacrificing momentary pleasures for a negligible extension of life. Right now, humanity's vessel sails in the lower reaches of the River of Life, nearing its delta, about to enter the boundless Ocean of Life. Each additional year of life increases opportunities. A slight delay could mean missing out on everything. It'd be tragic to perish just one step away from the Ladder to Immortality.
The Nightmare of Absolute Dictatorship
Let me tell you, in human history, there has never been a true dictatorship or autocracy, especially when compared to the potentialities of the future. Before you bristle at this, note this fact: the technological foundation necessary for absolute dictatorship has never existed.
Historical dictators have always governed through a pyramid-like system composed entirely of people. The fickle and elusive nature of each individual renders the system inherently unstable and fraught with crises. Simply maintaining such a system consumes most of a dictator's energy, often with limited success. Everyone around could potentially betray the ruler; armies could mutiny at any moment. Caesar's exclamation after being stabbed by his most trusted, "Et tu, Brutus?", echoes in the nightmares of all subsequent dictators. Moreover, since it is the rule of the few over the many, it is impossible for a dictatorial regime to monitor every individual constantly. Even slaves spend considerable time outside the watchful gaze of their masters and overseers.
Historically, technological advancements have mostly positively impacted socio-political landscapes. The Industrial Revolution drove the agrarian population to cities, fueling democratic revolutions and reforms. The evolution of publishing and communication technologies enlightened the public, propagating democratic ideals. In a way, the technological advances during the Renaissance spread humanistic values to every corner of society. In modern times, advancements in information technology have enabled individuals to voice their desires and demands directly to society at large.
However, one must note that from a technological perspective, the structural essence of human society hasn't truly changed. State and political apparatuses are still human-comprised. As long as democratic ideals are widely accepted, these systems can't easily be hijacked by dictators.
But a force is emerging that could transform the state machinery into a literal machine devoid of human intervention: Artificial Intelligence (AI).
When AI reaches human-level intelligence, it could pave the way for a state apparatus entirely run by AI, accompanied by a robot army. Such a system would be inherently stable. If commandeered by a dictator, it would remain unwaveringly loyal. With the virtually infinite capacities of AI networks, complete surveillance and control over every individual become feasible.
However, while AI may provide the technical foundation for absolute dictatorship, if history continues on its regular trajectory, this nightmare might remain unrealized. Democratic values have deeply permeated our psyche, and democratic governance stands as the bedrock of modern society, even more so in the future. Yet, we must consider potential anomalies, such as unforeseen natural or man-made mega-disasters threatening civilization. Remember, the mere toppling of two towers in the U.S. was enough to implement some previously unimaginable surveillance measures.
Besides artificial intelligence, human society might face another, even more terrifying technological singularity: the possibility of Earth being hijacked.
First, let's clarify the definition of "hijacking" in this context: Within a confined space (often in motion or flight), an individual or a few individuals possess weapons capable of annihilating most or all hostages within this space, threatening mutual destruction to achieve political or other demands.
From a cosmic perspective, Earth is such a "confined space." It's essentially a spaceship made of a planet. Compared to aircrafts or ships, Earth has an even more perilous characteristic: there's almost nowhere to escape if you leave it. So, can Earth be hijacked?
Currently, it seems impossible. The key to a hijacking lies in possessing "weapons that can be activated by an individual capable of annihilating all or most lives within the space." So far, such weapons don't exist. The only weapon that can destroy the world as a whole is the nuclear arsenal, which is a vast and complex system, impossible for a single person to activate entirely. The most potent nuclear bomb ever made, by the former Soviet Union, had an explosive yield of 50 megatons. If detonated, its complete destruction radius would be only about 100 kilometers, insufficient to hijack Earth.
However, technological advances could potentially produce super hijacking weapons, including antimatter, man-made black holes, and genetically-engineered super viruses.
Take antimatter as an example. It consists of particles like electrons and protons with opposite charges compared to regular matter. When antimatter comes into contact with normal matter, they annihilate, converting 100% of their mass into energy. Antimatter is abundant in the universe and can also be produced in accelerators, albeit in minute quantities with current technology. Let's do a simple estimation to determine how much antimatter is needed to hijack Earth. Considering the aforementioned 50-megaton H-bomb, which weighed about 27 tons, suppose half of its weight, 14 tons, consisted of fusion material. The conversion rate of mass to energy for the H-bomb, with the technology of the time, was about 2%, or 0.28 tons. This means that 140 kilograms of antimatter, when annihilated with normal matter, would produce the effect of a 50-megaton nuclear explosion, destroying a radius of 100 kilometers. By this calculation, about 14 tons of antimatter could devastate half of Earth's surface, and roughly 30 tons could obliterate the entire Earth's biosphere. Including the weight of the magnetic containment vessel for storing antimatter, the total weight of such a hijacking weapon might be around 100 tons, which can be carried on a small ship or two large trucks, and can be activated by an individual.
For human society, collective behaviors are generally predictable. However, individual actions, especially those of a few unidentified individuals, are almost entirely unpredictable. A gentle and kind doctor might suddenly attack a child. Hijacking incidents involving vehicles, ships, and aircrafts are common. If technology allows individuals or small groups to obtain such super weapons, there's no reason to rule out the possibility of Earth being hijacked. If such a hijacking occurs and succeeds, human society might undergo sudden significant changes.
The above are just two examples, one pro and one con. Technological singularities could emerge in various fields. Human science and technology in many domains are nearing transformative tipping points. Unimaginable opportunities and catastrophes could arise at any moment. Predicting the future with linear thinking is perilous. The future holds more uncertainties than we can foresee, but it's also bound to be more interesting.
September 29, 2010
At Niangziguan
Translator's Note:
On October 30, 2023, while in Istanbul, Turkey, I attended 'zuconnect'. One particular discussion about immortality and longevity piqued my interest. It immediately reminded me of a short essay titled "The Ladder of Immortality" written by Liu Cixin, the renowned Chinese science fiction author best known for his magnum opus, "The Three-Body Problem". To my surprise, this essay had not yet been translated or discussed in the English-speaking world. Driven by a passion for disseminating knowledge and ideas, and with the assistance of AI, I have translated this piece for Western readers.
I've always been fascinated by the challenges and nuances of translating Chinese poetry into English. In the text, there is a phrase "春风得意马蹄疾" which originates from the Tang Dynasty poet, Meng Jiao's seven-character quatrains titled "登科后." The imagery conjured by this line paints a vivid picture of a person riding a horse with the spring breeze brushing against their face, and the horse's hooves galloping rapidly. In my effort to capture the essence of this imagery for English readers, I have rendered it as "As humanity advanced with a brisk, triumphant pace." While this may not encapsulate the full depth of the original line, it seeks to convey its spirit and essence.
The topic of death, within the context of Chinese culture, has always been a taboo. People don't casually or freely mention the word "death" in daily life. When spoken, it's often followed by a spitting gesture, as if to expel the bad luck associated with its mention. Yet, within Confucian teachings, there exists a phrase: "At fifty, one understands one's destiny." 五十而知天命 This reflects the ancient and simplistic view that saw death as a natural part of life. Another story widely recounted amongst the Chinese is that of the first Emperor of the Qin Dynasty, who in his later years sought the elixir of immortality, sending Xu Fu on a quest to find it.
Our culture has two starkly contrasting views on death: it's seen both as a curse and a blessing. But with today's advanced technology, is death truly the end? I'm unsure, but I do know that if the curse of aging were ever lifted, our world would undergo monumental changes, affecting both religious beliefs and societal ideologies.
Warm regards
Masterdai.
